Trade Probability Score (TPS) - Advanced Principles

Trade Probability Score (TPS) - Advanced Principles

In the basic principles section, we combine the 4 probability parameters into TPS:

• ORES (open intent)
• VDI (distance from value)
• MA (acceleration)
• RVF (participation)

In this section, we will make TPS even more powerful by adding 5 additional parts:

Part 1 - Dynamic weighting by time-of-day

Part 2 - Environment detection (trend vs transition vs chop) with ORES, VDI, MA & RVF

Part 3 - Trade decision framework for each regime

Part 4 - What TPS looks like inside each regime

Part 5 - Putting it all together (when to trade / size up / avoid a trade)

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🧠 PART 1 - DYNAMIC WEIGHTING BY TIME-OF-DAY

The importance of each variable changes during regular trading hours. All times below are in EST.

⏰ 9:30 - 10:15 (Opening Phase)

ORES = 35%

VDI  = 25%

RVF  = 25%

MA   = 15%

Rationale:

• Open defines intent → ORES dominates
• Participation matters early → RVF important
• Momentum less reliable initially

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⏰ 10:15 - 12:00 (Trend Development Phase)

VDI  = 30%

RVF  = 30%

MA   = 20%

ORES = 20%

Rationale:

• Our algorithm is looking for signs of sustained displacement + participation
• ORES still matters, but less relative to the opening phase.

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⏰ 12:00 - 13:30 (Midday Chop Zone)

RVF  = 35%

VDI  = 30%

MA   = 20%

ORES = 15%

Rationale:

• Low volume → RVF matters more than other probability parameters
• Members are advised to avoid trading for the most part, because most signals fail. If you do trade, very strict filters must be used

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⏰ 13:30 - 16:00 (Afternoon Phase)

VDI  = 35%

RVF  = 30%

MA   = 20%

ORES = 15%

Rationale:

• Trend continuation or reversal driven by institutional rebalancing and next day positioning
• ORES relevance declines in the afternoon

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🧠 PART 2 - ENVIRONMENT DETECTION (TREND vs TRANSITION vs CHOP) WITH ORES, VDI, MA & RVF

🔵 TREND REGIME

VDI ≥ 0.80 sustained

AND

RVF ≥ 1.10

AND

MA ≥ 0.00025 trending

AND

ORES confirms trend started early

🟡 TRANSITION REGIME (WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION)

ORES ≥ 1.00

BUT

VDI not sustained yet - Building (0.4 → 0.8)

AND

RVF rising toward ≥ 1.10

AND

MA FLIPPING

❌ CHOP REGIME (NO EDGE)

|VDI| < 0.40 (near 0)

AND

RVF < 1.05 (low)

AND

MA flat / flipping

BUT

ORES less relevant

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🧠 PART 3 - TRADE DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR EACH REGIME

🔵 TREND REGIME (IDEAL)

✅ WHEN TO TRADE

TPS ≥ 0.60

AND

VDI ≥ 0.80 sustained

AND

RVF ≥ 1.10

🟢 LONG CONDITIONS

VDI ≥ +0.80

AND

MA ≥ +0.0002 rising

AND

Price above VWAP

Ideal entry: Pullback followed by upward continuation

🔴 SHORT CONDITIONS

VDI ≤ -0.80

AND

MA ≤ -0.0002

AND

Price below VWAP

Ideal entry: Bounce followed by downward continuation

🛑 EXIT RULES

Exit if ANY:

VDI < 0.40

OR

RVF drops below 1.05

OR

MA flattens

OR

Price touches VWAP

❌ DO NOT TRADE

• If VDI not sustained
• If RVF falling
• If TPS < 0.60

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🟡 TRANSITION REGIME (SMALL SIZE)

✅ WHEN TO TRADE

TPS ≥ 0.60

AND

VDI building toward 0.80

AND

RVF rising ≥ 1.10

ENTRY

• Breakout from compression
• Smaller size and risk management are critical

EXIT

• Faster exits (scalp)
• Exit if no follow-through in 2 candles

❌ DO NOT TRADE

• Before breakout confirmation
• If RVF not rising

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❌ CHOP REGIME (NO TRADES)

🚫 NO TRADING

TPS < 0.60

OR

VDI < 0.40

OR

RVF < 1.05

OPTIONAL STRATEGY

• Fade extremes near:
  • ±1.0 VDI
• Very small size

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🧠 PART 4 - WHAT TPS LOOKS LIKE INSIDE EACH REGIME

TREND REGIME

TPS	Implication
0.60–0.70	Good continuation
0.70–0.80	Strong trend
>0.80	Trend day

TRANSITION REGIME

TPS	Implication
0.60–0.70	Early setup
>0.70	Breakout likely

CHOP REGIME

TPS	Implication
<0.60	No edge
0.45–0.60	Fake signals likely

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🧠 PART 5 - PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

TRADE ONLY IF:

TPS ≥ 0.60

AND

VDI ≥ 0.80 sustained

AND

RVF ≥ 1.10

AND

MA aligned (≥ 0.0002 trending)

SIZE UP IF:

TPS ≥ 0.80

AND

RVF ≥ 1.20

DO NOT TRADE IF:

TPS < 0.60

OR

VDI < 0.40

OR

RVF < 1.05

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🧠 MENTAL MODEL

ORES tells you if the move can start
VDI tells you if the move exists
MA tells you if it’s accelerating
RVF tells you if it will continue

Only trade ES when displacement is sustained, momentum is building, and participation confirms it - aligned with time-of-day