Opening Range Expansion (ORES)

Opening Range Expansion (ORES)

ORES = Opening Range Expansion Score

How large the first 15-minute range is relative to its recent average

It tells you:

“Did the market show real intent at the open, or is it still undecided?”

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🧠 FORMULA

ORES = First 15m Range ÷ Average 15m Range (last N days)

Where:

• First 15m range = High − Low (9:30–9:45)
• Average = same 15m bar over last ~10 sessions

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📊 HOW TO INTERPRET ORES FOR ES

ORES	Interpretation	Implication
< 0.85	Weak / compressed open	❌ Chop likely
0.85 – 1.00	Normal open	⚠️ No edge yet
1.00 – 1.10	Mild expansion	⚠️ Watch for direction
1.10 – 1.25	Strong expansion	✅ Tradable conditions
> 1.25	Aggressive open	🔥 Trend day potential

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🧠 HOW ORES HELPS YOU “LOOK UNDER THE HOOD”

• ES is driven by overnight positioning + macro flow
• The first 15 minutes reveals:
  • Was there imbalance?
  • Or is price still discovering?

ORES answers:

“Did institutions show their hand yet?”

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🔥 GOOD ORES FOR ES

✅ Strong open behavior

• First 15m candle has:
  • Large body
  • Clear directional push
• Follow-through in next 1–2 candles
• VWAP not immediately reclaimed

👉 This is initiative flow

❌ WEAK ORES FOR ES (TRAP)

🚩 No real intent

• Small first 15m range
• Wicks both sides
• Price crosses VWAP multiple times

👉 This leads to:

• Fake breakouts
• Rotation
• Chop

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🛡️ ES TRADE FILTERS — USING ORES

❌ HARD NO TRADE

ORES < 0.85

• No expansion
• No directional edge
• Expect mean reversion

⚠️ CAUTION ZONE

ORES 0.85 – 1.00

• Market still deciding
• Only take:
  • Perfect setups
  • Reduced size

✅ TRADEABLE CONDITIONS

ORES ≥ 1.10

• Directional intent present
• Momentum setups valid

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🔥 HIGH-CONFIDENCE TREND DAY

ORES ≥ 1.20

AND

RVF ≥ 1.20

→ This is when:

• ES trends cleanly
• Pullbacks are shallow
• Continuation setups dominate

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🔁 ENVIRONMENT DETECTION (TREND vs TRANSITION vs CHOP) WITH RVF + VDI + MA + ORES STACK

🔥 A+ TREND SETUP (ES)

ORES ≥ 1.10

AND

VDI ≥ 0.80 sustained

AND

MA ≥ 0.00030 increasing

AND

RVF ≥ 1.10

👉 This is your core system trade

❌ FAKE OPEN (common trap)

ORES ≥ 1.10

BUT

VDI fails to hold ≥ 0.80

→ Big open
→ No continuation

👉 Fade or avoid

⚠️ DELAYED TREND

ORES < 1.00

BUT

RVF rising > 1.15 later

AND

VDI builds gradually

→ Trend forms AFTER open
→ Trade later (after 10:00)

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⏱️ TRADE TIMING RULES (SPECIFIC TO ORES)

DO NOT TRADE before 9:45

Best entries: 9:50–10:30

ORES only matters early - after 10:30, RVF + VDI assume much greater importance.

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🧠 RVF, VDI, MA & ORES GIVE YOU A MORE COMPLETE PICTURE

• RVF = participation
• VDI = distance from value
• MA = momentum strength
• ORES = intent at the open

If the open didn’t expand, ES probably won’t trend (yet). Conversely if the open expanded, ES is more likely to trend.